BA+ Signal Across School-Poverty Bands

BA+ Signal Across School-Poverty Bands

Question
Does the association between community adult BA+ and school proficiency remain equally strong across the school-poverty range?

Scope
- Oregon 2024-25 school-level Total Population results.
- Charter, virtual, and curated special-enrollment schools excluded.
- Percent Proficient and model weights use students with reported Level 1-4 results.
- BA+ is the ACS tract share of adults with a bachelor's degree or higher.
- Poverty is ODE Students Experiencing Poverty for the enrolled school population.

Main findings
- BA+ is positively associated with proficiency statewide and within every broad poverty band.
- The BA+ slope is substantially steeper in low-poverty schools than in high-poverty schools.
- Inside high-poverty schools, BA+ retains a modest positive association after poverty level and attendance are included.
- These patterns describe association, not a causal BA+ effect.

Statewide school-poverty gradient
- ELA: -7.86 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.749).
- Math: -7.03 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.652).
- Science: -6.49 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.665).

BA+ association by poverty band
- Overall:
  - ELA: +5.48 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.631; 1,017 schools; 236,225 scored students).
  - Math: +5.72 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.646; 992 schools; 230,300 scored students).
  - Science: +4.41 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.559; 984 schools; 99,887 scored students).
- Low poverty (<20%):
  - ELA: +4.92 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.593; 141 schools; 38,907 scored students).
  - Math: +5.62 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.542; 140 schools; 38,260 scored students).
  - Science: +4.65 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.506; 141 schools; 18,064 scored students).
- Middle poverty (20-40%):
  - ELA: +2.36 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.323; 458 schools; 106,847 scored students).
  - Math: +3.35 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.418; 449 schools; 104,935 scored students).
  - Science: +1.60 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.216; 451 schools; 48,559 scored students).
- High poverty (>=40%):
  - ELA: +1.64 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.191; 418 schools; 90,471 scored students).
  - Math: +1.60 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.202; 403 schools; 87,105 scored students).
  - Science: +1.47 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.182; 392 schools; 33,264 scored students).
- Very high poverty (>=50%):
  - ELA: +0.95 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.107; 201 schools; 38,042 scored students).
  - Math: +1.12 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.144; 190 schools; 36,193 scored students).
  - Science: +1.01 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.129; 189 schools; 12,979 scored students).

Adjusted BA+ association inside high-poverty bands
- >=40% poverty:
  - ELA: adjusted BA+ slope +0.91 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.011.
  - Math: adjusted BA+ slope +1.29 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.025.
  - Science: adjusted BA+ slope +0.79 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.009.
- >=50% poverty:
  - ELA: adjusted BA+ slope +0.76 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.007.
  - Math: adjusted BA+ slope +1.02 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.017.
  - Science: adjusted BA+ slope +0.70 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.008.

Interpretation
- Community educational context remains informative after schools are separated by enrolled-student poverty.
- The association is not uniform: concentrated poverty coincides with a much smaller measured BA+ advantage.
- BA+ is attached to school-site geography rather than individual families or exact attendance areas, so band-specific estimates retain geographic measurement error.