BA+ Signal Across School-Poverty Bands

BA+ Signal Across School-Poverty Bands

Question
Does the association between community adult BA+ and school proficiency remain equally strong across the school-poverty range?

Scope
- Oregon 2024-25 school-level Total Population results.
- Charter, virtual, and curated special-enrollment schools excluded.
- Percent Proficient and model weights use students with reported Level 1-4 results.
- BA+ is the ACS tract share of adults with a bachelor's degree or higher.
- Poverty is ODE Students Experiencing Poverty for the enrolled school population.

Main findings
- BA+ is positively associated with proficiency statewide and within every broad poverty band.
- The BA+ slope is substantially steeper in low-poverty schools than in high-poverty schools.
- Inside high-poverty schools, BA+ retains a modest positive association after poverty level and attendance are included.
- These patterns describe association, not a causal BA+ effect.

Statewide school-poverty gradient
- ELA: -7.84 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.750).
- Math: -7.13 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.658).
- Science: -6.50 proficiency points per +10 poverty points (r=-0.667).

BA+ association by poverty band
- Overall:
  - ELA: +5.54 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.644; 984 schools; 232,384 scored students).
  - Math: +5.90 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.664; 968 schools; 226,966 scored students).
  - Science: +4.51 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.578; 951 schools; 97,991 scored students).
- Low poverty (<20%):
  - ELA: +5.76 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.683; 139 schools; 38,170 scored students).
  - Math: +6.73 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.634; 138 schools; 37,577 scored students).
  - Science: +5.52 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.588; 139 schools; 17,704 scored students).
- Middle poverty (20-40%):
  - ELA: +2.27 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.312; 442 schools; 104,568 scored students).
  - Math: +3.27 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.406; 433 schools; 102,697 scored students).
  - Science: +1.62 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.220; 434 schools; 47,571 scored students).
- High poverty (>=40%):
  - ELA: +1.63 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.192; 403 schools; 89,646 scored students).
  - Math: +1.72 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.218; 397 schools; 86,692 scored students).
  - Science: +1.49 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.184; 378 schools; 32,716 scored students).
- Very high poverty (>=50%):
  - ELA: +0.86 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.098; 191 schools; 37,606 scored students).
  - Math: +1.14 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.147; 188 schools; 36,093 scored students).
  - Science: +0.99 proficiency points per +10 BA+ points (r=+0.126; 180 schools; 12,682 scored students).

Adjusted BA+ association inside high-poverty bands
- >=40% poverty:
  - ELA: adjusted BA+ slope +0.90 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.011.
  - Math: adjusted BA+ slope +1.43 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.031.
  - Science: adjusted BA+ slope +0.74 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.008.
- >=50% poverty:
  - ELA: adjusted BA+ slope +0.68 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.006.
  - Math: adjusted BA+ slope +1.11 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.020.
  - Science: adjusted BA+ slope +0.64 per +10 BA+ points; added R^2=0.006.

Interpretation
- Community educational context remains informative after schools are separated by enrolled-student poverty.
- The association is not uniform: concentrated poverty coincides with a much smaller measured BA+ advantage.
- BA+ is attached to school-site geography rather than individual families or exact attendance areas, so band-specific estimates retain geographic measurement error.